Arab Uprisings All Around: Quiet Tension in Israeli Press

	Haaretz showing protests around the Arab world. Not exactly democracy yet, but quietly hoping for a change. From Haaretz.com 18-Feb-2011

Arabs are rioting now for over a month. It started with Tunisia. A country that seemed quiet and cultured. The Israelis who came from Tunisian descend are known for their quiet personality and hard work. Then came the Egyptians, hardly people of protest, at least not the violent kind. We still hear a bit of echoes from Iranian protests. But somehow the government's harsh suppression and communication isolation has made us forget. We hear protest in other places, like little lights turning on in the middle of the night. One should remember that Israel is the only democracy in our little corner of the world. From the Atlantic ocean to India. Far south as South Africa and who knows how far north, maybe Russia if one considers that government democratic. Israel is by far the only democracy here. So suddenly seeing countries who did not go through the adoption of democracy asking for rule by the people is refreshing. But not really. Israelis are cautious about celebrating democracy in Egypt, Syria or Jordan. Here, we better off not getting our hopes up. We have seen the rise of Gaddafi in Libya and Mubarak in Egypt. We have seen changes in economy and government in the gulf states. We have seen the war between Iran and Iraq, with very little change in how these countries are ruled and their acceptance of democratic processes by the people. So the press is quiet about our hopes, so is the government. Unlike Obama and Clinton in the press, Bibi and Lieberman are shy to advise Arabs what to do next.

But democracy does not come easy. All democracies brought down dictators and kings with violent revolts. Despot rulers simply do not feel like going away peacefully "just to give power to the people". Some forget how the French guillotined hundreds of royals and aristocrats to gain their freedom. Or the hidden killing of the Russian ruling family, down to the children, in an unknown forest at night. Afterwords a revolution killing millions with two factions reds and whites. Or the American revolution, at the time unreported and unremarkable to anyone in Europe. The people who did not kill their royals: British, Spanish and Dutch, are still living with them. Some say in a somewhat unclear democratic structure. Royals still holding a position of power and reverence: a British royal wedding getting the "subjects" all giddy with pride. For European and American readers, the Arabs now protesting had plenty of royal weddings (on TV.) They also see plenty of fast moving royal processions in black SUVS racing through their capital cities. They have seen plenty of yachts and plenty of royal visits from emissaries the world over. Something the British see much less and the Americans, north and south, not at all. Now all the little people in these kingdoms wonder why they still have royals and palaces while most of the population can hardly afford basic daily needs.

So if the British and Spanish did not kill off their royal rulers, would the Libyans get a democracy peacefully? (like the British and the Spanish?) Would the Egyptians build a popular democracy with citizen support and respect to common law? What would Saudis and Yemenis need to do to their rulers? While Europeans are proud of their centuries of royal rule, the Arabs have them trumped by millenniums. Saudi and gulf state ruling families trace their ancestors for centuries and their ruling heritage for longer than they can remember. So asking them to "just be calm", as Hillery Clinton is seen to be doing day after day on TV, may not be the best advice for revolutionaries right now. I also don't think that calling Egyptian and Tunisian activities protests is honest. They are truly revolts. This is what happens when a leader decides to leave because he realizes what will happen to him and his family if does not. While the Arab revolutionaries have not taken arms yet, this is certainly something that can happen. In places like Lebanon and Jordan and in the gulf emirates. There is plenty of money, willing suppliers and even hidden caches of arms all over the middle east. The spark to arm a small group and attack the ruling parties is just waiting for someone to light it.

Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and the smaller United Arab Emirates will not become democracies quietly either. Maybe the change is too fast for these small states, banded together in 1971. Barely two generation of leaders have ruled there, now they will be asked to quietly go away, give away their riches and power. Again, to let "the people rule themselves". Rulers descended from royal families tend to think that people simply can not rule themselves. They see democracies going back to the ancient Greeks working out just fine, but do not seem to understand how people without one man at the top can make things work out. Here in Israel we are still cautious and worried. If the Egyptians take on a full scale violent revolt it will certainly affect the Palestinians in Gaza and maybe even Israel directly. The same goes for Lebanon and Jordan. While Israel had to contend with the Palestinians for 60 plus years, that's nothing compared to full scale revolutions or civil wars that can be unleashed around us. There is even a worst scenario to all this revolutionary talk. If Egypt or Lebanon is taken over by a Muslim extremist government, things are going to be much worst. Imagine a government in Egypt aligned with Iran. Well, sorry for the grim thoughts on the blog, just giving a little peek into the worried faces of people here in Israel. Have a great weekend, whatever is left of it.