Will New Arab Democracies Open Diplomatic Relationships With Israel?

A shaky handshake between Rabin and Arafat brought euphoria and strong economic good will for a while. Picture from UPI archive.

Let's look forward a year from now. Let's dream of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Jordan and Bahrain with a democratically elected government. Let's dream a little of open diplomatic relationship and trade agreements with all these new democracies. Not just with Israel but with most of the countries in the world. Happy buzz around the world for the great advances in the Arab world. Something most of the west was hoping for since the 1950s. What does that mean in terms of diplomatic relationships with Israel? Not too far fetched if you just go back a few years. Remember the had shakes between Rabin and Arafat? Rabin didn't want to do it, but he did. Arafat was full of himself. They both got a Nobel Prize for Peace (1994). What most people forget is how the whole world suddenly loved Israel. They suddenly thought that the Palestinians are going to be just like the Israelis, free and democratic and unbelievably successful. Well, that didn't last, but it could have. If the Palestinians did become a democratic pluralistic territory, regardless of the issues with Israel. But with no real example of pluralistic democracy in the Arab world, that did not happen. Maybe it was just too hard to expect a small territory to innovate while organizing a whole new world for themselves.

Israelis would like to think that at least in north Africa and the Persian Gulf, Israel will be more welcome now. But the long peace with Egypt and Jordan are indicators to the contrary. The Egyptian peace has stopped the fighting but has not brought cooperation. Of course, with a shift from dictatorship to democracy, we can hope for big changes. That is what we have seen in eastern Europe just a decade ago. Countries that were either closed or cool toward Israeli business and trade warmed up and even became close allies. Building and architecture, IT (technology), military and security, agriculture, finance and even government professionals all have become a great collaborators. More Israeli architects and seed manufacturing salesmen look at developing eastern Europe as the next big market for Israeli services and goods. Israel is not alone here, this is exactly what Koreans, Chinese and Romanians are doing every day. The economies in growth and expansion look for places also in expansion. This is what freedom and fresh enthusiasm brings to economies. Israel goes through waves of enthusiasm like this every decade or so. They are mostly driven by outside forces. The agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is one such example. The Israeli population did not care much for what Rabin and Arafat were brewing behind close doors. Here, when the suicide bombers were at their peak, all we wanted is quiet. So did the Palestinian of east Jerusalem. Once the Palestinian Authority took control, the Palestinian people wanted the Israeli shoppers to come back and buy their produce, olive oil and furniture. Maybe get a car fixed in east Jerusalem at a discount price. But that did not happen, even today travel across the green line is not a casual event. Well, this is my little piece for today. We are going through exciting times, maybe the most monumental days in the history of the Middle East. But only time will tell which countries will get fresh Washingtons, Jeffersons and Franklins and which will continue with the dictators we all know and love. THANKS for READING!